Building a Better Polar Ice Forecast

Watching Arctic sea ice shrink to record lows has become a summer tradition for climatologists. And while few would expect that long-term trend to reverse, it's still a struggle to predict the annual highs and lows of polar sea ice. In fact, just looking at long-term statistics — how much the sea ice maximum and minimum usually shrinks each year — has proven more accurate than existing forecast techniques. But a long-term approach can’t predict extreme years or forecast sea ice in specifi